The Swiss Watch Market Has Turned. Not Everywhere.
21 August 2026
For two years the Swiss watch industry has been reporting declines. On 19 August 2026 the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry published the July figures, and the direction changed: exports rose 9.6 per cent to 2,628.3 million francs, and the cumulative result for the first seven months moved into positive territory at plus 0.9 per cent.
That is the headline. The useful part is underneath it, because the recovery is not broad, and where it is happening decides whether it affects you at all.
The recovery is at the top
The FH breaks exports down by price band. In July the split was stark:
| Export price band | Change in value, July 2026 |
|---|---|
| Over 3,000 francs | +12.0% |
| 500 to 3,000 francs | −3.9% |
| 200 to 500 francs | +26.1% |
| Under 200 francs | +6.8% in units |
The segment our clients buy in grew by 12 per cent. The segment directly beneath it is still shrinking. The 200 to 500 franc band, which the FH notes is recovering after four years of significant decline, is a different market with different buyers.
By material, the sharpest move was bimetallic gold and steel at plus 23.8 per cent in value. Steel rose 9.0 per cent, precious metal 3.7 per cent. In total 97,000 more watches left Switzerland than in July 2025.
Who is buying, and who is not
This is where the picture stops being comfortable.
| Market | July 2026, value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 701.3 million CHF | +26.5% |
| France | 234.4 million CHF | +104.6% |
| Japan | 162.9 million CHF | −3.7% |
| United Kingdom | 161.2 million CHF | +9.5% |
| Hong Kong | 153.7 million CHF | +0.5% |
| Singapore | 150.2 million CHF | +2.3% |
The United States drove the month, holding double-digit growth for a third consecutive month and taking 26.7 per cent of all Swiss watch exports. Germany rose 11.6 per cent and pulled the European Union up 12.4 per cent with it.
Against that: China fell 18.5 per cent, Japan 3.7 per cent, and the United Arab Emirates fell 3.7 per cent. We have an office in Dubai, so we will say it plainly rather than quietly: the Gulf is not carrying this recovery. America and Germany are.
The FH itself flags that the French figure of plus 104.6 per cent still does not reflect the actual trend in the market. We are repeating that caveat rather than the number.
What it means if you are waiting for a piece
For the last two years, allocations loosened. Not officially, and not at every house, but the wait for pieces that had been impossible became merely long. That was a function of demand falling faster than production.
The July figures suggest that window is closing, and closing first at the top, which is exactly where it had opened widest. If you have been holding a conversation with a boutique about a specific reference, this is the point at which patience stops being free.
Two things follow from that, and neither is a reason to rush.
Scarcity that is structural survives a cycle. Scarcity that was marketing does not. The pieces that held their value through the decline were the ones where supply is genuinely constrained by the house rather than by a campaign. That is the test worth applying now, not the price chart.
A recovering market is a worse market to buy badly in. On the secondary side, the paperwork matters more than the discount. A watch without its box and original papers loses a substantial share of its market value, and in a rising market the temptation to overlook that grows.
One caveat we will not skip
The FH states it in its own communiqué, and it belongs in any honest reading of these numbers: all figures refer to exports, not to sales to end consumers. A watch exported in July is not necessarily a watch sold in July. The data can be revised, and the most recent publication prevails.
Export data is still the best public indicator of where the industry is going, which is why we use it. It is not a sales figure, and anyone presenting it as one is telling you something the source does not say.
If you are looking for a specific reference, or want a view on whether a piece you have been offered is worth the premium, that is what our luxury sourcing does. We are not an authorised dealer for any house. We act for the client.
Straight answers.
Is the Swiss watch market recovering in 2026?
In part. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry reported on 19 August 2026 that July exports rose 9.6 per cent to 2,628.3 million francs, moving the cumulative seven-month result into positive territory at plus 0.9 per cent, after two years of decline. The recovery is concentrated at the top of the market.
Which price segment is growing?
Watches priced for export above 3,000 francs grew 12.0 per cent in value in July 2026, while the 500 to 3,000 franc segment still fell 3.9 per cent. The 200 to 500 franc band rose 26.1 per cent after four years of significant decline.
Which markets are driving the recovery?
The United States, up 26.5 per cent and holding double-digit growth for a third consecutive month at 26.7 per cent of all exports, together with Germany at plus 11.6 per cent. Against that, China fell 18.5 per cent, Japan 3.7 per cent and the United Arab Emirates 3.7 per cent.
Do these figures show what consumers bought?
No, and the Federation says so itself. All its figures refer to exports, not to sales to end consumers. A watch exported in July is not necessarily a watch sold in July, and the data can be revised.
Does a recovering market make it harder to get an allocation?
That is the practical consequence. Allocations loosened while demand fell faster than production. With the top of the market growing again, the window in which waiting was cheap is closing first where it had opened widest.
Anything. Anytime. Anywhere.
Please contact us with any VIP requests by phone or email, 7 days a week, 365 days a year.